Sunday, October 19, 2008

Financial crisis? What financial crisis? And two new major endorsements for Barack Obama

If a recent stroll through the designer shoe department at Saks Fifth Avenue is any indication, New Yorkers -- and many others -- have yet to grasp or fully realize that there is a financial crisis/recession afoot. Or maybe this whole "financial crisis" and market and real estate meltdown is just a figment of my overactive imagination.

Allow me to explain.

As many (if not most of you) recall, the market has (supposedly -- again, it could just be my imagination) lost, oh, well over 1,000 points the last month, investment and retail banks have been going under, and, if your neck of the woods is anything like mine, there have been far more "for sale" signs dotting the landscape than usual this time of year, which, according to the "experts" I've been watching, listening to, and/or reading translates into bad news for the economy -- and for us shareholders, taxpayers, and working stiffs (even for Joe the Plumber, who it turns out is not a plumber).

But you sure couldn't tell there was anything wrong with the economy a couple of Saturdays ago lunching on the Upper West Side of New York or strolling through Saks Fifth Avenue -- or even judging by the crowd at a local watering hole near me this weekend.

There I was, earlier this month, enjoying a wonderful lunch at a chic Upper West Side restaurant in New York, as a guest. The restaurant, just across the street from Lincoln Center, was packed, and the wine was flowing. In fact, despite the not-inexpensive prices (the average bill for a party of two, including alcohol, tax, and tip, had to be $150, if not more) there was not a table to be had. But no one in the place, whether families with small children, elegantly dressed couples, or the "Sex in the City" crowd, seemed to notice or care about or notice the cost, except perhaps for me (and I, for once, wasn't even paying). It was just business as usual, despite the fact the market had just lost around 1,000 points and a number of big name name banks, the lifeblood of the New York economy, were about to or had gone under.

After lunch, my lunch companion and I strolled down Fifth Avenue over to Rockefeller Center and Saks Fifth Avenue. Inside Saks, there was barely a foot of free space, the main floor was so crowded -- though not so much that I missed seeing the Rev. Al Sharpton and his "date" making the rounds. (Btw, the Reverend Al looks much better and nicer in the flesh, so to speak, than on TV.) And everywhere the cash registers were ringing.

Next we went up to the designer shoe department, where the average price of a pair of shoes was around $500 (and that's probably a conservative estimate). Stepping off the escalator, you would think they were giving pairs away. And I swear those two women were this close to fighting over a pair of $700 Christian Laboutins.

Making the rounds of the different designers, I was unimpressed by the offerings and a bit shocked by the number of people willing to spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on these confections, whose sole purpose seemed to be keeping chiropractors and/or massage therapists in business, and I left the store a bit depressed.

On the train back home, after admiring and taking pictures of the two Maseratis on display at Grand Central Terminal, I thought about what I had seen -- and discounted it as just an anomaly, until yesterday.

As a special treat, yesterday (another Saturday)I took my daughter out for lunch to a little French cafe we like. We haven't gone out to dinner in a while (though we do occasionally do take out), and she had been itching to go out, and I thought lunch would be reasonable. Ha!

When we got to the restaurant, the place was mostly empty. However, within 15 minutes, there was not a table to be had. There were two parties of eight, a very nattily dressed woman with two three- or four-year-olds, who she noted had already eaten, and other families with small children as well as many couples probably out for some leaf peeping.

While going out for lunch on a Saturday is not that unusual, this was not exactly McDonald's or even Chili's -- with the average bill for two, without wine or beer, coming to at least $50. (I had forgotten the restaurant did not have a separate lunch menu.) Yet that clearly did not stop anyone from ordering multi-course meals or expensive bottles of wine.

So, am I imagining this whole financial crisis? Are those "for sale" signs and bank failures just figments of my imagination?

What do you all think?

BREAKING NEWS [10:10 AM]: Colin Powell just endorsed Barack Obama on "Meet the Press" with Tom Brokaw. It was a great speech/explanation, well considered and thoughtful -- and mesmerizing. What a shame Powell didn't run for President in 2000 or 2004.

Also, the Chicago Tribune, for the first time in history, endorsed the Democratic candidate for President, Barack Obama, this Friday, in another stunning bit of news.

Coming up next on J-TWO-O: Will the real Eli Manning please stand up -- and throw a touchdown (instead of a pick). And, which uniforms will the Jets wear today?

7 comments:

EMM said...

I admire Colin Powell and respect his decision. It goes to my point that there are more of us in the "middle". It is my sincere hope that we have a viable, major third party in the future.

As for shopping, I've done plenty, with cash over the past week. The 401K statement is not pretty, but that does not mean I should not have some swanky new shoes.

Not all Americans were greedy, stupid and irresponsible. Those of us without debt (or manageable debt), will continue to spend and invest and ride this out.

J. said...

Excellent points, EMM.

Btw, I am in no way saying that all Americans were/are greedy and/or stupid and/or irresponsible, though I think the greediness/irresponsibility factor has gone up in recent years.

More importantly, what kind of shoes did you get? ; )

Anonymous said...

Exactly! I think we love apocalypse news, we like to speak about doom, but generally, we somehow know the situation is not so bad :)
For example, the 1987 crisis was much bigger (for now, we will see later..) than this one and who remembers it now, except economists and historians?? And I believe in five-ten years we will hardly remember this one (what about dot.com bubble? Remeber? Or THIS is still some second part of dot.com bubble??)
Take care
Lorne

Anonymous said...

Remember the old Roadrunner & Coyote cartoon? Wile E. Coyote would be chasing the Roadrunner, fail to negotiate a turn and run off a cliff. He would hang suspended in mid-air for a moment or two, then he'd look down, wave bye-bye or hold up a sign that said "Yikes!" and fall.

Well, that's how I view those shoppers. Not just them, but all of us who are going about our daily lives as if the financial system weren't collapsing around our ears. I'm not sure what else we can do at this point.

Emm, I sure hope you're right and that what's happening won't have a gigantic impact on those of us who aren't up to our eyeballs in debt. But I don't think anyone will get out of this situation unscathed.

Lorne, I hope you're correct in ranking this crisis below the unpleasantries of '87. I don't share that optimism. I'm afraid this will make '87 look like child's play.

Off to go spread sunshine elsewhere. Carry on! :-)

EMM said...

Of course we're all impacted, but we can't just stop. Alter our behavior, slow down a bit but not stop.

I'm in hospitality and we were crushed for a time after 9/11, I'm fully aware of what happens when people stop dead in their tracks.

Anonymous said...

NY Times guest blogger Bonnie Fuller covers similar territory in her column into today's paper. Fuller notes that: "Recession be damned: the relationship between a woman and her hairstylist and colorist continues to be as tight as the one with her broker." Amazing stuff.

J. said...

Here is a link to Bonnie Fuller on "What Women Want".

As I was discussing with a fellow parent earlier, who noted that the local Ski and Skate Sale did much better this year than last year, the more certain people get into debt, the more they spend/go shopping.

I must have the soul of someone who barely or didn't survive the Depression because my inclination is to cut back/be more creative and save more.